ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Hopefully this will drum up some discussion.
These are my players who are currently listed outside of the top 75 in ADP on ESPN right now. Every one of them I would consider drafting and for two different reasons.
The first number is the average pick in ESPN mock drafts. The second number is what pick they are at in their position.
Players who are good value:
77. (12) Tony Romo. Why Romo drops so far is beyond me. He feels like a virtual lock for 4k in passing yards and should flirt with the 30 TD mark again. He has one of the best emerging young talents in Dez Bryant, one of the best safety valve TEs in Witten, and a above average WR2 in Miles Austin. This ADP is too low in my opinion.
79. (31) Anquan Boldin. Everything about this pick is safe. While he's starting to get up there in age, this dude just keeps on chugging. He falls into a perfect spot too, with a young QB who needs a safe pair of hands. Look for Kaepernick to find this guy often. Boldin will likely bail him out just like he was bailing out Flacco last year. High receptions and decent yardage looks like a lock. Not a ton of upside, but good safe value.
87. (8) Greg Olsen. He finished 2012 6th in targets, 6th in receptions, 4th in yards, and tied for 10th in TDs. 3 players who finished with more TDs than him last year are Heath Miller (ACL injury late in the season), Aaron Hernandez (he's in a lil bit of trouble right now), and Dennis Pitta (on the shelf for the year). Makes this guy look like a very nice value. Cam Newton loves him as his #2 option and there is no one in that passing game who looks to supplant him. Another good safe value if you missed on the higher ranked TEs.
Another category that contradicts these first 3 guys in players who I feel are set to bust out. There's not a ton of statistical data to back any of it up, it's merely a situation or gut feeling. Obviously open to more interpretation.
76. (29)Tavon Austin. Rookie WRs who are high on talent have shown in the last few years that they're not waiting around till year 3 to showcase what they can do. With a lack of any other options in STL, and Sjax being gone from the run game, Bradford is going to need to throw it somewhere. This kid could blow up and become a great steal in the middle of the draft.
78. (30)Cecil Shorts. This guy actually has some statistical history to lean on. He performed great last year, with and without Justin Blackmon on the field. He's capable of making an enormous play every time he touches the ball. If nothing else, he should be a solid play in the first 4 weeks leading up to Blackmon coming back.
82. (30)Rashard Mendenhall. It wasn't too long ago, and Mendy was a somewhat sexy 2nd round fantasy pick. Some bad injury luck has taken him all the way into the middle rounds. He's healthy now, has a strong hold on a #1 running job with little to no competition behind him. The rest of the offense is competent too, with Fitz running routes and Palmer controlling the game. I think this guy could really surprise some people this year.
86. (31)Shane Vareen. This one really only applies to a full PPR league. I don't see this guy scoring a ton of TDs, nor do I see him being a huge threat to gain a ton of rushing yards. When New England goes into a hurry up offense, this should be the guy on the field though. With that depleted receiving corps, he instantly becomes one of the best pass catchers on the team. I think 50 receptions is easily in his range. With a little more development as an all around player, he could do some big damage.
91. (35)TY Hilton. I like the name. It just screams "fantasy football break out player". Some people will call him Ty, some will call him TY, some will just call him stud. The kid has talent and Luck likes him. 91 targets as a rookie, but he only converted 50 of them into receptions. If that number increases, watch out!
93. (33)DeAngelo WIlliams. This is almost the most unsexy pick you could make at this point in the draft. But why not? He has talent and now that Jstew looks like he cant stay on the field, big things could be possible for DeAngelo. Yes he is 30 now, but he's not as abused as most 30 year old RBs. Ever since Jstew showed up in Carolina and muddied the RB waters, DeAngelo hasn't had more than 173 carries in a season. He has proved that he can still stay north of the 4.0 YPC mark too. Watch out though, the more negative news that pops up on Jstew the more this ADP will creep up.
99. (38) Sidney Rice 132.(45) Golden Tate. It would be insane if these ADPs held heir ground in the coming weeks. This is far too low for 2 guys who's situation is this nice. Coming into their 2nd year of building confidence with Wilson could lead to 1 of these 2 guys breaking out. Both have talent, and its rare to find a #1 WR this late in the draft.
106. (40) Kenny Britt. The ultimate risk. He has no QB. He has more injury and idiot concerns than anyone in the NFL. His talent is amazing though. This ADP is probably right where it should be, but the reward could be amazing. This season makes or breaks this guy in my opinion. It's either time for him to blow up or fade away.
118. Jermichael Finley. Just kidding. Screw this guy. he just is never going to be THAT player.
121. (41)Bryce Brown. He might be the most likely non household name to turn a former stud in McCoy into an also ran. This could easily become a full blown RBBC. 1 McCoy injury and Brown could steal this job for good. He's that talented. His 4 game stretch when McCoy went down last year was outstanding. Granted, it still leaves some concern. The 1st 2 games of McCoy's absence, Brown rushed for 347 yards and 4 TDs. The next 2 games he had 40 yards and no TDs. For this ADP though, the risk is easily worth it.
129. (13)Martellus Bennett. This guy could be just what the doctor ordered for Cutler. He's an enormous 6'6 and 265 lbs. He's a freakish athlete for his size as well. The only concerning factor might be that he's seen the field for 2 teams in the NFL already, and both have passed on keeping him around. Maybe a low character guy or maybe he's just not that next level talent. Im willing to give him 1 more shot though.
133. (46)Michael Floyd. When Larry Fitzgerald is on the field, you're going to be able to get open. Plain and simple. Even though he had a very unimpressive rookie campaign, he might have had a better chance of success if Jay Feely was taking snaps at QB. Palmer can get the job done though. Good price for a solid young player.
147. (23)Carson Palmer. WAY too low. What a joke. Palmer might be the most disrespected QB in the fantasy game. He put up 4k yards with the Raiders last year. The f'ing Raiders!! You want to take a serious gamble in your fantasy league? Save that pick that you would use on your starting QB up in the first 7 rounds somewhere, and wait on this guy. Want to play it a little more safely? Get one of those risky higher QBs and back them up with Palmer.
155. (25)Ryan Tannehill. I like this situation. Miami aggressively added pieces in free agency for their young QB. I think he could show the best statistical improvement from year 1 to year 2 of recent years QBs. Adding Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller is huge for this kid.
172. (55) Justin Blackmon. I don't know whats going on with the mock drafters on ESPN, but this ADP is crazy out of whack. Blackmon's ADP on fantasy football calculator is 123. This conservative approach is going to allow someone to get very lucky on a truly gifted player. Sure, he could be another Kenny Britt in the making, but he could also be Dez Bryant. Without overstepping my own predictive skills, Ill say with some certainty that Blackmon will finish higher than the 55th best WR in the league.
These are my players who are currently listed outside of the top 75 in ADP on ESPN right now. Every one of them I would consider drafting and for two different reasons.
The first number is the average pick in ESPN mock drafts. The second number is what pick they are at in their position.
Players who are good value:
77. (12) Tony Romo. Why Romo drops so far is beyond me. He feels like a virtual lock for 4k in passing yards and should flirt with the 30 TD mark again. He has one of the best emerging young talents in Dez Bryant, one of the best safety valve TEs in Witten, and a above average WR2 in Miles Austin. This ADP is too low in my opinion.
79. (31) Anquan Boldin. Everything about this pick is safe. While he's starting to get up there in age, this dude just keeps on chugging. He falls into a perfect spot too, with a young QB who needs a safe pair of hands. Look for Kaepernick to find this guy often. Boldin will likely bail him out just like he was bailing out Flacco last year. High receptions and decent yardage looks like a lock. Not a ton of upside, but good safe value.
87. (8) Greg Olsen. He finished 2012 6th in targets, 6th in receptions, 4th in yards, and tied for 10th in TDs. 3 players who finished with more TDs than him last year are Heath Miller (ACL injury late in the season), Aaron Hernandez (he's in a lil bit of trouble right now), and Dennis Pitta (on the shelf for the year). Makes this guy look like a very nice value. Cam Newton loves him as his #2 option and there is no one in that passing game who looks to supplant him. Another good safe value if you missed on the higher ranked TEs.
Another category that contradicts these first 3 guys in players who I feel are set to bust out. There's not a ton of statistical data to back any of it up, it's merely a situation or gut feeling. Obviously open to more interpretation.
76. (29)Tavon Austin. Rookie WRs who are high on talent have shown in the last few years that they're not waiting around till year 3 to showcase what they can do. With a lack of any other options in STL, and Sjax being gone from the run game, Bradford is going to need to throw it somewhere. This kid could blow up and become a great steal in the middle of the draft.
78. (30)Cecil Shorts. This guy actually has some statistical history to lean on. He performed great last year, with and without Justin Blackmon on the field. He's capable of making an enormous play every time he touches the ball. If nothing else, he should be a solid play in the first 4 weeks leading up to Blackmon coming back.
82. (30)Rashard Mendenhall. It wasn't too long ago, and Mendy was a somewhat sexy 2nd round fantasy pick. Some bad injury luck has taken him all the way into the middle rounds. He's healthy now, has a strong hold on a #1 running job with little to no competition behind him. The rest of the offense is competent too, with Fitz running routes and Palmer controlling the game. I think this guy could really surprise some people this year.
86. (31)Shane Vareen. This one really only applies to a full PPR league. I don't see this guy scoring a ton of TDs, nor do I see him being a huge threat to gain a ton of rushing yards. When New England goes into a hurry up offense, this should be the guy on the field though. With that depleted receiving corps, he instantly becomes one of the best pass catchers on the team. I think 50 receptions is easily in his range. With a little more development as an all around player, he could do some big damage.
91. (35)TY Hilton. I like the name. It just screams "fantasy football break out player". Some people will call him Ty, some will call him TY, some will just call him stud. The kid has talent and Luck likes him. 91 targets as a rookie, but he only converted 50 of them into receptions. If that number increases, watch out!
93. (33)DeAngelo WIlliams. This is almost the most unsexy pick you could make at this point in the draft. But why not? He has talent and now that Jstew looks like he cant stay on the field, big things could be possible for DeAngelo. Yes he is 30 now, but he's not as abused as most 30 year old RBs. Ever since Jstew showed up in Carolina and muddied the RB waters, DeAngelo hasn't had more than 173 carries in a season. He has proved that he can still stay north of the 4.0 YPC mark too. Watch out though, the more negative news that pops up on Jstew the more this ADP will creep up.
99. (38) Sidney Rice 132.(45) Golden Tate. It would be insane if these ADPs held heir ground in the coming weeks. This is far too low for 2 guys who's situation is this nice. Coming into their 2nd year of building confidence with Wilson could lead to 1 of these 2 guys breaking out. Both have talent, and its rare to find a #1 WR this late in the draft.
106. (40) Kenny Britt. The ultimate risk. He has no QB. He has more injury and idiot concerns than anyone in the NFL. His talent is amazing though. This ADP is probably right where it should be, but the reward could be amazing. This season makes or breaks this guy in my opinion. It's either time for him to blow up or fade away.
118. Jermichael Finley. Just kidding. Screw this guy. he just is never going to be THAT player.
121. (41)Bryce Brown. He might be the most likely non household name to turn a former stud in McCoy into an also ran. This could easily become a full blown RBBC. 1 McCoy injury and Brown could steal this job for good. He's that talented. His 4 game stretch when McCoy went down last year was outstanding. Granted, it still leaves some concern. The 1st 2 games of McCoy's absence, Brown rushed for 347 yards and 4 TDs. The next 2 games he had 40 yards and no TDs. For this ADP though, the risk is easily worth it.
129. (13)Martellus Bennett. This guy could be just what the doctor ordered for Cutler. He's an enormous 6'6 and 265 lbs. He's a freakish athlete for his size as well. The only concerning factor might be that he's seen the field for 2 teams in the NFL already, and both have passed on keeping him around. Maybe a low character guy or maybe he's just not that next level talent. Im willing to give him 1 more shot though.
133. (46)Michael Floyd. When Larry Fitzgerald is on the field, you're going to be able to get open. Plain and simple. Even though he had a very unimpressive rookie campaign, he might have had a better chance of success if Jay Feely was taking snaps at QB. Palmer can get the job done though. Good price for a solid young player.
147. (23)Carson Palmer. WAY too low. What a joke. Palmer might be the most disrespected QB in the fantasy game. He put up 4k yards with the Raiders last year. The f'ing Raiders!! You want to take a serious gamble in your fantasy league? Save that pick that you would use on your starting QB up in the first 7 rounds somewhere, and wait on this guy. Want to play it a little more safely? Get one of those risky higher QBs and back them up with Palmer.
155. (25)Ryan Tannehill. I like this situation. Miami aggressively added pieces in free agency for their young QB. I think he could show the best statistical improvement from year 1 to year 2 of recent years QBs. Adding Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller is huge for this kid.
172. (55) Justin Blackmon. I don't know whats going on with the mock drafters on ESPN, but this ADP is crazy out of whack. Blackmon's ADP on fantasy football calculator is 123. This conservative approach is going to allow someone to get very lucky on a truly gifted player. Sure, he could be another Kenny Britt in the making, but he could also be Dez Bryant. Without overstepping my own predictive skills, Ill say with some certainty that Blackmon will finish higher than the 55th best WR in the league.
