LSU in the BCS Title game? Don't bet against it.

[mudloggerone]

They say the grass is always greener, but in Baton Rouge these days, the grass appears to be tastier, too. It’s been the unlikeliest of seasons for LSU, but after Saturday’s 24-21 win over Alabama, the 8-1 Tigers hover over college football’s four remaining unbeaten teams, perched above in the No. 5 spot of this week’s latest BCS standings.

The CBS cameras caught Les Miles eating blades of grass on the sidelines of Saturday’s game. If the chips somehow fall his way — and from what we’ve seen this season, there’s nothing that would make us think they won’t — Miles could be eating a lot more than just grass come Jan. 10. He could be eating the hearts and dreams of college football fans across the country, leading the third team that didn’t win its conference — and just the second to not win its division — into a BCS National Championship Game.

Impossible? No.

Ludicrous? Not at all.

Unlikely? Perhaps.

But crazier things have happened. And with Miles at the wheel? Crazier things seem to happen on a weekly basis.


LSU could get a title shot without winning the SEC West - CFB News - FOX Sports on MSN

 

[maverick824]

In order for this to happen, you're probably looking at 3 things happening......

- Auburn getting dropped at Alabama, reasonable chance for this to happen.
- Oregon losing one, I'm inclined to say very doubtful, but this is an undefeated Pac-10, it happens far more often than it should.
- (optional) They pass TCU in the BCS standings without the benefit of a big conference title win. I just don't see em making up this gap without a meltdown by Utah, killing their SOS.

If LSU does get in, and I were Boise, I'd file a lawsuit against the BCS, plain and simple. Incredibly unfair to a team that in the past 4 years has beaten Oklahoma, Alabama, Oregon, and V Tech, 3 of those teams conference champs, or in Tech's case, favored to be CC.

 

[mudloggerone]

Whatever it takes to get a playoff set up is okay with me.

 

[Cerberus]

Heard a bit of that yesterday on espn. Don't see how it could happen but if it does it shows even more how the bcs is built around popularity. They seem to think that an Oregon v LSU is a much bigger draw than a combination of Oregon, Auburn, TCU or Boise st would have any kind of draw that would compare. If by chance the top 4 win their remaining games and LSU jumps them anyways, then the system is even broke than thought before. Maybe then they will be pressured into a playoff system and less of a popularity contest. If Auburn loses to Alabama, which is not that far fetched, and Oregon wins out as does TCU, then it should be those two for the championship. Boise gets left out but this really does show teams that they need to stop scheduling powder puff teams and play more legite teams.

 

[mudloggerone]

There's no chance that LSU jumps Auburn if they win out. I also heard an idea of a way that LSU could play Auburn in the BCS game but that would require several miracles to happen. Far fetched indeed!

A LSU vs Oregon title game would be interesting in another respect. Those 2 schools open the season next year against each other at a neutral site.

 

[mudloggerone]

FTR I agree that if Auburn loses and Oregon and TCU win out it should be those 2 schools in the title game. If Auburn wins out they'll not only be in the game but will win it hands down. Right Auburn is the best football team period.

But if Auburn and Oregon both drop a game and if LSU wins out the Tigers from Baton Rouge will play in the title game. Unlikey? For sure! Impossible? Not hardly.

 

[Cerberus]

LSU v Oregon opening next season will be a barn burner. Definitly a must see esp if LSU squeaks in the championship game. Nothing against LSU but just not liking how TCU/Boise st is getting no respect. And TCU crushed Utah by 40, number 5 ranked team at the time. And unless Oregon loses a game, i'm guessing an Oregon v TCU title game. I feel that Alabama will beat Auburn to make that happen.

 

[Cerberus]

FTR I agree that if Auburn loses and Oregon and TCU win out it should be those 2 schools in the title game. If Auburn wins out they'll not only be in the game but will win it hands down. Right Auburn is the best football team period.

But if Auburn and Oregon both drop a game and if LSU wins out the Tigers from Baton Rouge will play in the title game. Unlikey? For sure! Impossible? Not hardly.

So Oregon loses, Auburn loses, TCU/Boise win out and so does LSU, then your saying they jump 1 of those 2 even tho they are unbeaten and LSU has 1 loss? So its LSU and who? Which one gets the nod to play them? I agree with your thinking but more as a money thing. LSU v TCU/Boise will be a bigger draw financially than if its TCU/Boise in the championship game. Popularity will do that for ya.

 

[mudloggerone]

It would be TCU playing against the Tigers I believe if it all falls into place. The Oregon loss is the one I have the hardest time believing. Sabans boys will be out for blood when they take on the Plainsmen, who BTW have a distraction of their own to cope with that seems to be growing daily.

 

[Sgt John]

Bottomline is the BCS will die if TCU and/or Boise both finish undefeated and get leapfrogged by a one loss team for a title shot.

The Utah AG is watching this very closely, because his entire anti-trust lawsuit would basically be proven by both teams being leaped, especially if its a team like LSU that didnt even win its conference.

Its going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out if Oregon or Auburn stumble.

 

[Bayou Bengal]

If LSU wins out without the SEC championship game they will be ahead of Boise but behind TCU.

IF LSU wins out with the SEC CG they will be ahead of Boise and TCU. Obviously would mean Barner would be out of the equation and LSU would end up in the NCG.

HOWEVER, IMO, LSU is an underdog at Ar-kansas

 

[Bayou Bengal]

Current BCS Standings:
1) .9638 Auburn
2) .9611 Oregon
3) .9259 TCU
4) .8662 Boise State
5) .8170 LSU

Remaining Schedules:
1) Auburn - 11/13 Georgia, 11/26 @Alabama
2) Oregon - 11/13 @ Cal, 11/26 Arizona, 12/4 @ Oregon State
3) TCU - 11/13 San Diego State, 11/27 @ New Mexico
4) Boise State - 11/12 @ Idaho, 11/19 Fresno State, 11/26 @ Nevada, 12/4 Utah State
5) LSU - 11/13 ULM, 11/20 Ole Miss, 11/27 @Arkansas

Current Computer Poll Rankings
.....................JS....AH.....BL...CL....PW... ..KM
Auburn............1.......1......2.....1......1... ....1........1.000
TCU................3.......2......1.....2......3.. .....2........0.950
Oregon............2.......4......5.....4......2... ....3........0.910
LSU.................6......3......4.....3.......4. ......4........0.890
Boise State.....10......5......3.....5.......7.......8.. ......0.790

The most likely scenario that could play out in which LSU ends up in the national title game is as follows:
1) TCU wins out and just hopes either Oregon or Auburn loses, they would be in the title game without a doubt
2) Oregon loses one of it's remaining 3 games (all 3 teams have a legit chance at the upset, so losing one is actually not far fetched)
3) Auburn loses one of it's two remaining games or the SEC CG (again, all 3 teams would have a legit shot at winning, again not far fetched)
4) Boise State either loses to Nevada OR LSU jumps Boise State in the BCS rankings
5) LSU wins out, preferably wins the West and wins the SEC CG (although not required)

I believe the first 3 things are going to occur. It's the 4th piece to the puzzle that gets sketchy (as well as LSU winning out, which is far from certain).

Some simple math:
If you just apply Boise State being placed 4th in the human polls and LSU being 5th in the human polls by every single voter, this yields:

...................Coaches........Harris......Comp uter.......BCS
LSU............... .840............ .840.......... .890........ .857
Boise State..... .880............ .880.......... .790........ .850

So in other words, given the current computer poll rankings, if LSU were just 1 spot behind Boise State on average for every voter (it's a hypothetical obviously), LSU would be ranked higher than Boise State in the BCS. LSU does not have to pass Boise State or necessarily even get close to Boise's point total in the 2 human polls. A 364 point differential in the Harris needs to narrow to just 114. A 177 point deficit in the Coaches needs to narrow to just 59. LSU roughly needs to eliminate 2/3 of the deficit in both human polls as it currently stands. Obviously it's all a moot point if Nevada pulls the upset and LSU wins out.

LSU's absolute best scenario, given that Boise State does run the table, is for Auburn to lose it's last 2 games, LSU goes to the SEC CG and wins. Then the voters have the tough decision of whether a 1 loss SEC Champ deserves to be in the BCS title game over an undefeated Boise State. LSU computer poll rankings would also be enhanced and may end up making the difference necessary for LSU to overtake Boise State in the final BCS poll. My bet at that point is LSU. Some style points would come into play in this scenario.

As great as the LSU win was on Saturday, the chance LSU had late in the 4th when Alabama was desperate down 24-14, to maybe get a turnover or defensive stop and win 24-14, 27-14, 31-14 would have gone a long long way in getting LSU to a solid #5 in the human polls this past Sunday.

Games of utmost importance to buoy LSU's human poll rankings:
1) Wisconsin to lose at Michigan 11/20
2) Ohio State to lose @ Iowa 11/20 or vs Michigan 11/27
3) Stanford to lose @ Cal 11/20 or vs Oregon State 11/27
4) Nebraska at Texas A&M 11/20

Wisconsin, Ohio State, Stanford and Nebraska are all stealing valuable points from LSU in the human polls (in that order, Wisconsin causing the most damage, Nebraska causing us the least). Given losses by the first 3 of these teams, LSU closes the gap on Boise State by nearly 1/2 (remember we need to reduce the gap by 2/3 ultimately).

Games of importance to help LSU and hurt Boise State in the computer polls (as well as human voter effect):
1) Arkansas to win the next two and be ranked in the top 10
2) Florida to win out and be ranked in the top 15 (hopefully we play them in the SEC CG, but minimally our win over them looks better)
3) Alabama to win out and be ranked in the top 10
4) Nevada to lose @ Fresno State 11/13 - THIS ONE IS HUGE
5) Virginia Tech to lose @ North Carolina 11/13 and @ Miami 11/20
6) Oregon State to lose to USC 11/20
7) West Virginia running the table and get back in the top 25 and be the BCS representative from the Big East

Virginia Tech losing to North Carolina would be of tremendous help for LSU and hurt Boise State considerably. Getting Virginia Tech out of the top 25 and North Carolina into the top 25 instead would go a long way in the computer poll results favoring LSU over Boise State. Nevada losing this week knocks them completely out of the top 25 and a Boise State win is greatly diminished. Oregon State getting a 5th loss would help diminish the affects of possible wins over Stanford and/or Oregon and keep them out of the top 25.

There are still other issues to contend with even if both Oregon and Auburn lose a game. When do they lose a game? If Auburn loses to Georgia and beats Alabama and then wins the SEC CG, do they jump past us? Proabably. If Cal beats Oregon and then Oregon dominates both a ranked Arizona State and then arch rival Oregon State on a weekend in which LSU isn't even playing, do they jump past us? Probably. The most likely scenario for a non SEC Champ LSU to prevail would be for Oregon to lose it's last game vs Oregon State (again, LSU would be idle and pollsters would have a difficult time sending a team that lost it's last game to the BCS title game) and Auburn losing one of it's last two and then lose the SEC CG.

Ultimately the very best scenario would be for Auburn to lose it's last 2 games, LSU become the SEC Champs and Oregon lose ANY of it's last 3 games. A 1 loss SEC Champ will trump a 1 loss PAC-10 team. LSU would be playing their SEC CG the same weekend Oregon would play Oregon State in that scenario. Again, I think LSU as SEC Champs jump Boise State in the final week of the BCS polls.

 

[Cerberus]

Remaining Schedules:
1) Auburn - 11/13 Georgia, 11/26 @Alabama
2) Oregon - 11/13 @ Cal, 11/26 Arizona, 12/4 @ Oregon State
3) TCU - 11/13 San Diego State, 11/27 @ New Mexico
4) Boise State - 11/12 @ Idaho, 11/19 Fresno State, 11/26 @ Nevada, 12/4 Utah State
5) LSU - 11/13 ULM, 11/20 Ole Miss, 11/27 @Arkansas



1 Auburn: I can see them losing to Alabama.
Oregon: Not a tough schedule left but can easily slip looking ahead.
TCU: They'll finish unbeaten but need to score alot to impress.
BSU: Nevada could suprise them i think
LSU: Ole Miss then Arkansas a week later. thats tough. They win all 3 impressivly and 'Bama beats Auburn, i wouldnt be suprised 1 bit to see LSU jump up to the title game. More impressive schedule left i think.

This i think makes a case for teams to either stop playing powder puff teams each year or getting rid of the bcs and setting up a playoff system.