Keeper Help

[ExperiencedRookie]

Hey guys, I normally don't ask for any advice, but this is killing me.

I'm in a standard scoring league and we're going to be keeping 2 players from last year without keeping 2 players at the same position.

My roster is as follows
RBs : Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Marion Barber, Pierre Thomas
WRs : Reggie Wayne, Cal Johnson, Roddy White, Chad Johnson
TE : Tony Gonzalez
QB : Jake Delhomme, Kyle Orton

Obviously I won't be keeping a QB. It would also be dumb to keep a TE. So which RB and which WR do I keep? Keep in mind that we are adding .5 PPR next year.

This is really frustrating. When I look at current mock drafts I have 5 players who are being selected in the top 12!! I have to give 3 of those players away. So disgusting.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

That blows dude. It obviously comes down, IMO to a combination of Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Reggie Wayne, and Roddy White, if I have to break it down to 4.

I'd personlly go Forte, and White.

I think that Forte's impact will be greater next year for Chicago. As for Turner, I think that Atlanta will throw the ball more now that Matt Ryan had a great year under his belt. Not only does that mean that Turner will loose points, but White will gain them. Just my 2 cents.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

That blows dude. It obviously comes down, IMO to a combination of Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Reggie Wayne, and Roddy White, if I have to break it down to 4.

I'd personlly go Forte, and White.

I think that Forte's impact will be greater next year for Chicago. As for Turner, I think that Atlanta will throw the ball more now that Matt Ryan had a great year under his belt. Not only does that mean that Turner will loose points, but White will gain them. Just my 2 cents.

Thanks for the input. I'm surprised to see White as the guy you chose. In most mock drafts Cal goes first, then Reggie Wayne, and Roddy finds himself in the 3rd round. I see where you're coming from with your logic though.

1 thing I won't do is keep both Turner and White. I don't want 2 key pieces off any offense.

If I had to choose right now I think I would go with Forte for sure. Especially with us adding .5 PPR. Turner only caught 10 balls last year and I'm sure Chicago's dink and dunk offense will continue to dump the ball off to Forte.

The WR is giving me the biggest problem. Cal was a freak of nature last year with a revolving door of bad QBs at the helm. No matter who was throwing the ball, he was still a fantasy stud. The only problem is that he doesn't catch a whole lot of balls. Then I have this guy Reggie Wayne who should be one of the highest targetted WRs in the league next year. Peyton coming back healthy and no Marvin to steal looks makes Reggie look like a great option. Then there is Roddy White who had an incredible year in 08 as well. He just doesn't have that X factor that puts him ahead of Cal or Reggie though.

I'm still so torn. Need more input.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

Where I can see your argument for Cal, I have trouble putting White at the bottom of that WR list. Wayne burned me more than twice last year so I've lost quite a bit of faith in him. White seemed to get me the points I needed, when I needed them last year, and was one of the most consistant WRs out there last year. Although Megatron is tough to pass on, he seems to have too much of the X factor, IMO. He relied on simple big plays last year, and I know we'll take the points however we get them, but White seems sure to get at least 5 balls through the air on any given Sunday and a TD. It's that assurace week in and week out that sells me.

Still, you're right. You're in a tough spot and it's hard to not be torn. GL.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I too lost some faith in Reggie Wayne last year. I think he struggled along with that entire offense. Their offensive line had injury woes and Peyton wasn't 100% for the opening weeks of the season. I think that turns around this season and with no Marvin Harrison, Wayne catches a TON of balls.

 

[Miller]

Here's my take. At RB I would lean Forte, kid was a machine as a rookie and with the .5 per reception that is enough to put him over the top. Turner won't disapear, but I think he falls back ever so slightly this season.

For WR I think it's a fairly easy call. I go with Cal Johnson. Megatron is a stud and should be that way for the next decade, you just don't give up players like that.

I would say by to Turner, Wayne, White, and the others.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

For WR I think it's a fairly easy call. I go with Cal Johnson. Megatron is a stud and should be that way for the next decade, you just don't give up players like that.

I would say by to Turner, Wayne, White, and the others.

Thanks for the input.

There is 1 determining factor in play that can make my decision much easier. If somehow Cutler was to end up in Detroit it would be a no brainer to keep Cal. I'll be very interested to see what Detroit does at QB this offseason.

 

[bodey24]

I agree with Miller. I would keep Forte and Calvin Johnson

 

[WesDawg]

I'd go chalk here as well with Forte and Calvin. The PPR points and age alone tilt the pendulum in the favor of those 2. Turner had single digit receptions last year and that likely won't change much. That gives you 2 guys to keep for the next several years, not just for 2009.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

How does PPR tilt it for CJ? He caught 10 passes less than Roddy White last year. Don't get me wrong, I can't seem to find any wrong answer here, so you saying pick CJ over RW is fine by me, honestly. I'd pick CJ for the TDs (12), not the PPR. RW only had 7.

My thinking is this: Matt Ryan will throw more. I think RW has between 90-100 Rec next year. That's about 50 points on the upside of things in your .5 PPR. I see him catching 10 TDs next year as well, easily.

For some reason, I think CJ will have a similar season as he did last year, maybe even less TDs by one or two, putting him at about 10. However I don't think he'll break 80 Rec.

Still, you're in a win-win situation there ER.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

How does PPR tilt it for CJ? He caught 10 passes less than Roddy White last year. Don't get me wrong, I can't seem to find any wrong answer here, so you saying pick CJ over RW is fine by me, honestly. I'd pick CJ for the TDs (12), not the PPR. RW only had 7.

My thinking is this: Matt Ryan will throw more. I think RW has between 90-100 Rec next year. That's about 50 points on the upside of things in your .5 PPR. I see him catching 10 TDs next year as well, easily.

For some reason, I think CJ will have a similar season as he did last year, maybe even less TDs by one or two, putting him at about 10. However I don't think he'll break 80 Rec.

Still, you're in a win-win situation there ER.

My thinking about dropping Roddy goes like this. Every team in the league is keeping 2 players. If I would decide to keep Roddy instead of Cal, someone would certainly grab Cal in the 1st round before my pick at 8. If I was to drop Roddy White, he could still be available at 8 when I pick. I could get the chance to pick him right back up if I wanted to.

Likely keepers in this league are as follows. Teams appear in the order that we will draft.
Team 1 : Andre Johnson and Reggie Bush/Joe Addai
Team 2 : Frank Gore and Tom Brady/Kurt Warner
Team 3 : Tony Romo and Greg Jennings
Team 4 : Jacobs and Randy Moss
Team 5 : Portis and Brandon Marshall. Might keep Aaron Rodgers instead of Marshall
Team 6 : Steven Jackson and Marques Colston
Team 7 : Brian Westbrook and Larry Fitzgerald
My Team : Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson/Reggie Wayne
Team 9 : Peyton and Maurice Jones Drew
Team 10 : Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson
This means that of the 20 players kept there will be 8 RBs, 7 WRs, and 5 QBs.

Best available players : Michael Turner, LT, Chris Johnson, Reggie Wayne/Calvin Johnson, Marion Barber, Anquan Boldin, DeAngelo Williams, Steve Slaton, Steve Smith, Thomas Jones, Roddy White, Housh, Tom Brady/Kurt Warner. Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas, Dwayne Bowe, LJ, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush/Joe Addai, Ronnie Browm, Terrell Owens, Jay Cutler.

Players in bold are being released from my team.

1st round of the draft.
Team 1 : Michael Turner
Team 2 : Reggie Wayne/Calvin Johnson
Team 3 : Chris Johnson
Team 4 : Marion Barber
Team 5 : Anquan Boldin
Team 6 : DeAngelo Williams
Team 7 : Steve Smith
My Team : Roddy/Bowe/Slaton/who knows

Sorry if this got a little long winded. More posting this for myself to keep a hold on things than for anyone else.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

OK, that makes a lot of sense. I'm on board now, ER. If you have the ability to acquire CJ and White, I'm sold. Good point.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

OK, that makes a lot of sense. I'm on board now, ER. If you have the ability to acquire CJ and White, I'm sold. Good point.

The 2 guys who pick behind will both be keeping a QB as well. Which means I can pass on QB and it will go around the corner without either team taking one. If Brady/Warner survives the 1st round, I can grab him with my pick at 2.03

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

Good idea, ER. Knowing your draft order and the tendencies of the other owners plays a huge role in that pick and your drops.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Good idea, ER. Knowing your draft order and the tendencies of the other owners plays a huge role in that pick and your drops.

Indeed. Still haven't settled anything though. Gotta choose between Reggie Wayne and Calvin Johnson. Guess it depends on what Detroit does at Qb. Wait and see approach

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

Yeah I would wait a little bit before deciding on them. Personally I like CJ more, but after this Cutler thing pans out you should have a better idea of which one to pick.

 

[Hazy101]

So, have you made up you r mind? You have to keep Calvin!! And Forte is the man especially if you are adding a .5 PPR this year. Thats my opinions. I wouldn't argue Turner over Forte though. Anyone else see 2000 yard potential and 20 TD's with him?

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

So, have you made up you r mind? You have to keep Calvin!! And Forte is the man especially if you are adding a .5 PPR this year. Thats my opinions. I wouldn't argue Turner over Forte though. Anyone else see 2000 yard potential and 20 TD's with him?

Dear lord man. 2000 yards? 20 TDs?

As far as making up my mind, I'm pretty set on Forte. It appears that we will be able to trade the players that we are not keeping to other teams who will keep them.

There are a few teams that have some pretty bad rosters, that could really use a guy like Turner as their keeper. So I should be able to get an extra draft pick or 2, or even move up in the draft because of Turner.

That's real nice.

I lean even more in the direction of keeping Forte and trading Turner because Turner seems to carry a higher value among the other owners in my league for some reason. I should be able to get a better draft pick out of Turner than Forte.

 

[WesDawg]

After revisiting this thread, looks like Teams 1 and 3 could use the RB upgrade you can provide with Turner. I'd be offering them him straight up for their picks, and see which one bites. If Team 1 is smart, he won't because he can take Turner with his pick anyway, but ya never know. If I was the Team 3 owner, I'd do that deal in a second.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

After revisiting this thread, looks like Teams 1 and 3 could use the RB upgrade you can provide with Turner. I'd be offering them him straight up for their picks, and see which one bites. If Team 1 is smart, he won't because he can take Turner with his pick anyway, but ya never know. If I was the Team 3 owner, I'd do that deal in a second.

Here's the trick though, Team 1 owner knows that he can get Turner with the 1st pick right? WRONG. That's my best friend. He knows very well that I already have trade talks with team 3. He's already in scramble mode trying to outbid team 3.

It's freaking beautiful. He is so afraid that all the best players who would normally be available at pick1 will now be traded to other teams and become keepers. He's watching the value of the overall #1 pick drop like a rock, and wants to get in on the trading action.