ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Will someone else please chime in here. Cooley and I find ourselves arguing a lot lately. Someone moderate on this LJ nonsense PLEASE!
How Much Weight Does YPC Have in Your Opinion?
- Thread starter Runnik's Hambones
- Start date
RUBBER DUCKIE
New Member
LJ sucked in 2007 due to his holdout.
LJ was decent in 2008. 874 yards and 5 TD's while missing 4.5 games. He had a 4.5 YPC and those stats are pretty good for missing 25% of the season.
If you look at the stats by the games played (countint 11.5 games played), he averaged 76 yards a game and almost .5 TD, so he was giving you an average of 10 pts in the weeks he wasn't injured. If you factor the stats he made when he played for the year of 16 games, he'd have about 1200 yards and 6 TD's. That's pretty good on a team that was always behind and throwing the ball. Thats as good or better then Ryan Grant who people like for some reason and Grant only had a 3.9 YPC.
I traded LJ just before the 2008 season along with a DB for J.Stewart. I was happy about the deal then and I have no sellers remorse.
LJ was decent in 2008. 874 yards and 5 TD's while missing 4.5 games. He had a 4.5 YPC and those stats are pretty good for missing 25% of the season.
If you look at the stats by the games played (countint 11.5 games played), he averaged 76 yards a game and almost .5 TD, so he was giving you an average of 10 pts in the weeks he wasn't injured. If you factor the stats he made when he played for the year of 16 games, he'd have about 1200 yards and 6 TD's. That's pretty good on a team that was always behind and throwing the ball. Thats as good or better then Ryan Grant who people like for some reason and Grant only had a 3.9 YPC.
I traded LJ just before the 2008 season along with a DB for J.Stewart. I was happy about the deal then and I have no sellers remorse.
Last edited by a moderator:
Runnik's Hambones
Active Member
LJ sucked.
You're welcome, ER.
You're welcome, ER.
Cooley Cadets
Banned
And that is all I was saying. There was originally was no discussion about factoring in what ER may have paid to obtain LJ until now. The fact remains that when he was in the game last year he remained a factor.
Runnik's Hambones
Active Member
Look, LJ produced when he was in the game however if I'm not sold he's getting 300+ carries, I'm staying the hell away from him. Not because I don't think he's a good RB, hell he had a 4.5 AVG (ironic how I brought that up again, huh?) last year, but it's more that I'm uncomfortible with him on my squad.
I'd rather, as stated in many threads, have someone I can count on getting me 10 points a game than LJ scoring a crap load of points one game then almost nothing the next.
Consider this: PPR scoring to give him as much of an edge as I can, and just Fum lost not total Fums.
Week 1: 22 att, 74 yards, 1 rec, 12 yards = 9 points
Week 2: 12 att, 22 yards = 2 points
Week 3: 24 att, 121 yards, 1 TD = 18 points
Week 4: 28 att, 198 yards, 2 TD, 5 Rec, 1 Fum = 34 points
Week 5: 7 att, 2 yards = 0 points
Week 6: Bye
Week 7-10: Didn't play = 0 points
Week 11: 19 att, 67 yards, 1 rec, 20 yards = 9 points
Week 12: 7 att, 81 yards, 2 rec, 21 yards = 12 points
Week 13: 24 att, 92 yards, 1 TD = 15 points
Week 14: 11 att, 36 yards = 3 points
Week 15: 17 att, 55 yards, 3 rec, 18 yards = 9 points
Week 16: 12 att, 108 yards, 1 TD = 16 points (Keep in mind, most people aren't getting these points cause they're done)
Week 17: 10 att, 18 yards = 1 point
In 6 of the 12 games he played (50-freaking-%) KC gave him less than 15 carries. Only 2of those 6 games did he have more than a 4 yard average being 11.6 YPC and 9.0 YPC in weeks 12 and 16, respectivly.
128 total fantasy points out of 12 games puts him nicely at a 10.67 PPG (8.0 PPG if you count the 4 games he didn't play as well).
The guy may have single handidly won you week 4 with his 34 point performance, but every other week is average save for the 4 GAMES HE LOST YOU when he posted less than 5 points each week. That doesn't even count the 4 games in which he was on your bench!
Looking at his overall 4.5 YPC for 2008 makes him appear to be productive and in a football sense that's exactly what it says, however you have to look at everything else. If you wish to gamble away 8 games out of the season then draft the guy. Personally, I'm remaining clear the hell away.
I'd rather, as stated in many threads, have someone I can count on getting me 10 points a game than LJ scoring a crap load of points one game then almost nothing the next.
Consider this: PPR scoring to give him as much of an edge as I can, and just Fum lost not total Fums.
Week 1: 22 att, 74 yards, 1 rec, 12 yards = 9 points
Week 2: 12 att, 22 yards = 2 points
Week 3: 24 att, 121 yards, 1 TD = 18 points
Week 4: 28 att, 198 yards, 2 TD, 5 Rec, 1 Fum = 34 points
Week 5: 7 att, 2 yards = 0 points
Week 6: Bye
Week 7-10: Didn't play = 0 points
Week 11: 19 att, 67 yards, 1 rec, 20 yards = 9 points
Week 12: 7 att, 81 yards, 2 rec, 21 yards = 12 points
Week 13: 24 att, 92 yards, 1 TD = 15 points
Week 14: 11 att, 36 yards = 3 points
Week 15: 17 att, 55 yards, 3 rec, 18 yards = 9 points
Week 16: 12 att, 108 yards, 1 TD = 16 points (Keep in mind, most people aren't getting these points cause they're done)
Week 17: 10 att, 18 yards = 1 point
In 6 of the 12 games he played (50-freaking-%) KC gave him less than 15 carries. Only 2of those 6 games did he have more than a 4 yard average being 11.6 YPC and 9.0 YPC in weeks 12 and 16, respectivly.
128 total fantasy points out of 12 games puts him nicely at a 10.67 PPG (8.0 PPG if you count the 4 games he didn't play as well).
The guy may have single handidly won you week 4 with his 34 point performance, but every other week is average save for the 4 GAMES HE LOST YOU when he posted less than 5 points each week. That doesn't even count the 4 games in which he was on your bench!
Looking at his overall 4.5 YPC for 2008 makes him appear to be productive and in a football sense that's exactly what it says, however you have to look at everything else. If you wish to gamble away 8 games out of the season then draft the guy. Personally, I'm remaining clear the hell away.
Cooley Cadets
Banned
I don't think anyone is making a recommendation he should be drafted as someone you can count on a weekly basis - his draft position was not a part of the conversation until it was shown that he was still able to succeed when healthy/on the field. This is not something new as his status has been a big question for the last few years.
Just like last year I am not looking at drafting him as my starter but I could definitely consider him as bench depth depending on what we see in preseason (I'm guessing not much of him). But that is not the conversation ER began.
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Somehow this thread has turned into "Was LJ a succcesfull fantasy RB in 08".
I can't believe there is anyone trying to say that he was. Just because the total looks decent, doesn't mean the answer is yes.
Like RH said, he gave you 4 BIG games, and crap the rest of the time.
That is not going to lead you to fantasy success.
Once again, 31st in scoring in regular leagues, 39th in PPR leagues.
NOT A SUCCESS.
Give this one up Cooley. I know you've had a stiff one for arguing with me on every little thing lately, but this one is just ridiculous.
I can't believe there is anyone trying to say that he was. Just because the total looks decent, doesn't mean the answer is yes.
Like RH said, he gave you 4 BIG games, and crap the rest of the time.
That is not going to lead you to fantasy success.
Once again, 31st in scoring in regular leagues, 39th in PPR leagues.
NOT A SUCCESS.
Give this one up Cooley. I know you've had a stiff one for arguing with me on every little thing lately, but this one is just ridiculous.
efactor
Coming at you
While this thread got way off topic, it does give a good example of the dangers of looking too much at the previous season when evaluating a player for this year.
While Johnson was "worthless" for much of 08, it had more to do with the Chiefs game plan or lack of one. When he was used, he produced for the most part. He's also a guy with a good track history and his down year was more of a team failure combined with his personal issues than a reflection of talent (loss to age or overwork). He has had a couple years of reduced use and this should be a positive in 09. If the chiefs find a balanced attack with their new coach, Johnson should be an excellent value in the 4th to 5th round.
On the other hand, some players thrive due to a teams game plan and if that game plan changes dramatically the next year, either because of coaching change or personal change, their numbers will probably suffer.
I know this is basic knowledge for most of us and may be to simple to be worthy of posting, but still, I think we get too caught up in statistics at times and fail to simply look at how a situation affected those statistics.
Runnik's Hambones
Active Member
Guys, I was actually trying to stear this topic back on subject with my last post by pointing out that the guy had 4.5 YPC last year, then breaking down his fantasy value. He's a great example why YPC looks good simply in a football sense, but his 4.5 wont help you as a fantasy owner.
LOL, so much for my attempts.
LOL, so much for my attempts.
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Don't try that productive crap around here!
You make a good point though RH. LJ had a 4.5 last year. In fact, the Chiefs were 5th in the league in YPC rushing. 5th!! Their rushing game was total garbage!
YPC has me mystified. (It's the word of the day)
Runnik's Hambones
Active Member
Thanks for multiple things, but mainly for using the word of the day.
Cooley Cadets
Banned
Corrected, you're welcome.
I did not say LJ was a success story in '08. Again I provide you with your words. "I challenge you to find a RB who saw his YPC drop by 0.5 in 2 consecutive years who still found fantasy success following that drop." LJ found fantasy success after your skewed criteria was met. That does not mean his entire season was a success, his team was a success, he warrants to be anyones #1 or #2 RB... It does mean he found fantasy success - even if on a much more limited basis than you anticipated when you drafted him as your #1.
I am more than willing to argue with anyone who asks for one thing and once someone does you change or add to your criteria or recruit others to champion your cause to make it appear you were correct. You were not and feel free to argue about that as much as you like
Runnik's Hambones
Active Member
Alright guys, lets slow the fight down a bit and try and stay on topic.
Cooley Cadets
Banned
It is just another tool to use no more important (or less) than others when projecting future potential/development/decline. It is not something I focus much on in-season while actually managing a team. It would come into play when considering possible trades...
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
This is why I'm beginning to really become annoyed with debating with you.
The fact that we're so hung up on this is stupid by the way.
You say LJ enjoyed fantasy success after the 0.5 drop, I say he didn't. So what.
If you type these words and believe them, I will bow out of this thread.
"LJ was the 31st RB in standard scoring and the 39th in PPR scoring. That's a success"
Cooley Cadets
Banned
I thought I made it clear that I simply met the criteria you initially requested. Your desire to reinterpret that now is on you, not me. You are becoming annoyed only because you know this to be true. Bow out or not but don't try to get me to say something just so you feel better about yourself.
Runnik's Hambones
Active Member
Ok, that's totally fair. That's the kind of answer I was looking for.
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Ha. Way to work the word of the day in.
I'm sure the fact that KC was 29th in the league had nothing to do with their high YPC.
RUBBER DUCKIE
New Member
LJ's limited attempts were due more to the Chiefs Def then LJ or the Cheifs Off game plan. They were second to last in yards given up and only had 10 sacks for the entire team. Look at the stats before you beat LJ down. How many attempts to you expect him to have when they are down double digit points almost all the time.