ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
I started thinking yesterday about what high mileage really does to a running back. It is long known to fantasy players that RBs who have a lot of recent touches tend to break down over time. The most recent case is Larry Johnson getting run into the ground in KC. The wheels have to fall off at some point.
This lead me to do some digging and research. The following is my report on RBs who have had high carries since 2006, and how is affected the top scorers for 2008.
In 2006, 13 RBs had 300+ touches, including catches.
Larry Johnson 457
SJax 436
LT 404
Edge 375
Gore 373
Willie Parker 368
Rudi Johnson 363
Chester Taylor 345
Jamal Lewis 332
Thomas Jones 332
Westy 317
Ahman Green 312
Warrick Dunn 308
In 2007, 11 RBs has 300+ touches.
LT 375
Portis 372
Westy 368
Edge 348
Parker 344
Thomas Jones 338
McGahee 337
Jamal Lewis 328
Lendale White 328
Gore 313
Addai 302
In 2008, 9 RBs had 300+ touches.
Adrian Peterson 384
Turner 382
Forte 379
Portis 370
LT 344
Ryan Grant 330
Thomas Jones 326
Steve Slaton 318
Jamal Lewis 302
See a pattern evolving here? Every year the number of 300+ carry RBs has dropped. Not only that, but no RB has had 400+ touches in 2 years.
I'm not telling you anything they don't know already. The RBBC has officially taken over in the NFL.
What I am trying to gather from all this is :
A. Can a RB who has had high touches 2 years in a row still perform as a top 10 RB?
B. Can RBs who are in RBBC get enough touches to be a top 10 RB, and how do you find them?
Answering the 1st question is easy. I went back to look at the top scoring RBs from 2008.
Standard leagues. 10 Yds=1 Pt, TDs =6 Pts, NO PPR
Players in bold were top in carries the last 2 years.
DeAngelo Williams
Turner
Adrian Peterson
Thomas Jones
Forte
Slaton
MJD
LT
Portis
Westy
Chris Johnson
Jacobs
SJax
Gore
Same scoring + PPR
DeAngelo
Forte
Turner
MJD
LT
Westy
Thomas Jones
Slaton
Adrian Peterson
Portis
Chris Johnson
Barber
Lynch
Gore
SJax
Not 1 one of the 7 players who has had 300+ touches in back to back years was able to get into the top 3 in standard leagues or the top 4 in PPR leagues. Translation : a RB who has had 300+ touches in back to back years is unlikely to be a top 5 RB the next year.
The 7 RBs who had 300+ touches in 06 and 07 are LT, Edge, Parker, Jamal, Gore, Thomas Jones, and Westy. Only 3 of those 7 were able to reach 300 touches again in 08.
That makes a small group of players a true gamble. These guys have proven that they can be top fantasy scorers, but are nearing that breaking point. Portis, LT, and Thomas Jones have a ton of miles. LT and TJ are both getting old as well. Can these guys hold up all year and get 300+ touches again? Can they continue to perform at a high level?
Portis is the safest bet of the 3, and even yet, he's a gamble. He's had 300+ 2 of the last 3 seasons.
Now on to addressing the question of RBBC. Yes, it is possible for a RBBC guy to have a great season. DeAngelo Williams was the #1 RB last year without getting 300+ touches. Chris Johnson and Brandon Jacobs were really the only other 2 RBs who were in a RBBC that were elite, both getting less than 300 touches.
It seems that the RBBC is only a title going into the season. 1 guy is going to become the #1. Jacobs certainly is the #1. DeAngelo seems to have seperated himself from JStew. Chris Johnson was the more effective back, but fatty will steal goal line work. MJD stole the #1 spot from Fred Taylor.
I would stress to stay away from the RBBC guys, especially with a high pick unless you're really sure that you're getting the guy who is going to seperate himself from the competition.
In closing, find a RB who is going to get 300+ touches who hasn't had 300+ touches in the last 2 consecutive years. Matt Forte, Michael Turner, MJD, Adrian Peterson, Steve Slaton, Marion Barber, Steven Jackson and such.
This lead me to do some digging and research. The following is my report on RBs who have had high carries since 2006, and how is affected the top scorers for 2008.
In 2006, 13 RBs had 300+ touches, including catches.
Larry Johnson 457
SJax 436
LT 404
Edge 375
Gore 373
Willie Parker 368
Rudi Johnson 363
Chester Taylor 345
Jamal Lewis 332
Thomas Jones 332
Westy 317
Ahman Green 312
Warrick Dunn 308
In 2007, 11 RBs has 300+ touches.
LT 375
Portis 372
Westy 368
Edge 348
Parker 344
Thomas Jones 338
McGahee 337
Jamal Lewis 328
Lendale White 328
Gore 313
Addai 302
In 2008, 9 RBs had 300+ touches.
Adrian Peterson 384
Turner 382
Forte 379
Portis 370
LT 344
Ryan Grant 330
Thomas Jones 326
Steve Slaton 318
Jamal Lewis 302
See a pattern evolving here? Every year the number of 300+ carry RBs has dropped. Not only that, but no RB has had 400+ touches in 2 years.
I'm not telling you anything they don't know already. The RBBC has officially taken over in the NFL.
What I am trying to gather from all this is :
A. Can a RB who has had high touches 2 years in a row still perform as a top 10 RB?
B. Can RBs who are in RBBC get enough touches to be a top 10 RB, and how do you find them?
Answering the 1st question is easy. I went back to look at the top scoring RBs from 2008.
Standard leagues. 10 Yds=1 Pt, TDs =6 Pts, NO PPR
Players in bold were top in carries the last 2 years.
DeAngelo Williams
Turner
Adrian Peterson
Thomas Jones
Forte
Slaton
MJD
LT
Portis
Westy
Chris Johnson
Jacobs
SJax
Gore
Same scoring + PPR
DeAngelo
Forte
Turner
MJD
LT
Westy
Thomas Jones
Slaton
Adrian Peterson
Portis
Chris Johnson
Barber
Lynch
Gore
SJax
Not 1 one of the 7 players who has had 300+ touches in back to back years was able to get into the top 3 in standard leagues or the top 4 in PPR leagues. Translation : a RB who has had 300+ touches in back to back years is unlikely to be a top 5 RB the next year.
The 7 RBs who had 300+ touches in 06 and 07 are LT, Edge, Parker, Jamal, Gore, Thomas Jones, and Westy. Only 3 of those 7 were able to reach 300 touches again in 08.
That makes a small group of players a true gamble. These guys have proven that they can be top fantasy scorers, but are nearing that breaking point. Portis, LT, and Thomas Jones have a ton of miles. LT and TJ are both getting old as well. Can these guys hold up all year and get 300+ touches again? Can they continue to perform at a high level?
Portis is the safest bet of the 3, and even yet, he's a gamble. He's had 300+ 2 of the last 3 seasons.
Now on to addressing the question of RBBC. Yes, it is possible for a RBBC guy to have a great season. DeAngelo Williams was the #1 RB last year without getting 300+ touches. Chris Johnson and Brandon Jacobs were really the only other 2 RBs who were in a RBBC that were elite, both getting less than 300 touches.
It seems that the RBBC is only a title going into the season. 1 guy is going to become the #1. Jacobs certainly is the #1. DeAngelo seems to have seperated himself from JStew. Chris Johnson was the more effective back, but fatty will steal goal line work. MJD stole the #1 spot from Fred Taylor.
I would stress to stay away from the RBBC guys, especially with a high pick unless you're really sure that you're getting the guy who is going to seperate himself from the competition.
In closing, find a RB who is going to get 300+ touches who hasn't had 300+ touches in the last 2 consecutive years. Matt Forte, Michael Turner, MJD, Adrian Peterson, Steve Slaton, Marion Barber, Steven Jackson and such.
