Draft strategy

[ExperiencedRookie]

I've been thinking lately about what an incredibly awful drafter I've been since...well...forever. So after re-examining my picks from last year : Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, Ronnie Brown, Pierre Thomas, Devin Aromashadu, Marion Barber etc etc I realized that I don't know **** about this stuff! I can
t predict a fantasy stud to save my ass, and when I do (LeSean McCoy), I pass on him in the 2nd round cause I feel like his ADP says I should try to get him in the 3rd. I clearly suck at this!

This has led me to a whole new strategy for me. I'm sure I'm not the pioneer of this idea, but I want to get the opinions of the professionals and see where this goes.

Draft a whole team. Draft all Saints. Draft all Chargers. Draft all Packers, Patriots, or Cowboys. Take every player of value from a high powered offense and roll them out there every week. You'll still need to spend a few other high-mid picks on other players, but you essentially fill in 75% of your starting lineup with an entire team.

Brees, Colston, Meachum, Lance Moore, Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Jimmy Graham and then add in a WR in the 3rd and another RB in the 5th and 6th and this is your team.

How about Rivers, VJax, Malcolm Floyd, Gates, Ryan Matthews etc etc?

Can this work?

 

[Zach]

Ya do that and whoever you play on your bye week owes you a few drinks.

You would be hurting for you second RB in a big way. Your normal points per week would be weak and you would end up with a pretty crappy record. Only for a few teams in history could you find enough scoring spread around to make it possible to work - ie the Vikings and Rams 10 years ago. Problem with those two examples is that you would have three to four players gone from those teams in the first two rounds... making it basically impossible to pull off.

Vikings 2000 almost everything scoring wise went through Daunte, Carter, Moss, and Smith
Rams 1999 almost everything scoring went through Warner, Bruce, Holt, and Faulk

Getting those four players would have been extremely difficult and are the only two examples I can think of off the top of my head where you had four good scorers at the main three positions.

Teams today like the Patriots and Saints are known for their ability to spread the ball around. They can score a bunch of points - but you are still left not knowing who is going to actually get in the endzone.

Simply stated.. having a bunch of players from one team most likely will not get you anywhere.

(All that said I lived and died with Daunte to Moss for a few years - but thats a big difference than trying to fill almost every spot with players from one team)

 

[JackG1980]

I wouldnt get more then 2 players as my starters on the same team. But I do like getting combos QB/WR. Like Shaub/AJ, Manning/Wayne, Brady/Moss (previous year), Rivers/VJax. But trying to go with that sort of strategy can prove devastating for your team. For the past couple of years I have been going WR/WR as my first picks. But only because I knew some RBs like Foster and McCoy were going in the 3rd and 4th rounds of last year. This year I may go RB/(QB/RB) if Rodgers or Vick is around in the second. The WRs are deep this year.

 

[storminn0rm]

The main problem, besides the bye week, is if that team had a down week, your whole team has a down week. I usually don't like getting more than 2 players on 1 team. Sometimes it just works out that you get a few from the same team.

 

[cctekguy]

A broader version of your idea that I have tinkered with is only drafting guys from good teams....or more specifically, don't take any guys on the dud teams.

You could have fielded a very good team last year without owning a single Cardinal, Seahawk, Brown, Bengal or Raider. You might miss out on guy like Hillis and Fitz but you would have found guys like Foster and Vick.

Now the trick becomes figuring out which teams will be duds and which will out perform their pre-season predictions.

...but I don't use this as anything more than a tie breaker when torn between 2 guys.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Maybe I should be more specific. Don't have to take ALL the players from a team. If Rivers is a top 5 QB, Gates is a top 5 TE, and VJax is a top 20 WR, you're looking at a pretty stout start to your team. Fill it in with a guy like LeSean McCoy at RB as your 1st round pick and it feels pretty good. The Chargers feel like a team where you're not going to see a Malcolm Floyd or Legadu steal the show from VJax and Gates too often. Not like the Saints who are going to have receptions spread pretty evenly among 5-7 receivers/tight ends.

True, if the Chargers have a poor week, or Tolbert has 150 and 2 TDs, I'm going to be in big trouble. Just about every other week I'm going to have a nice base score out of my top positional players.

 

[Coachnorm]

Become One With The Draft, You Must!

by Coachnorm

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on 07-25-2008 at 08:14 PM (1950 Views)

Here around Sports Outlaw we have started making Yoda-like references about learning to feel the draft. I must admit I have done so in our fantasy advice forums. While it may seem a little comical it is actually some great advice. Only you it was, humor you, they did.

Mock a lot, do you. Yes, Mocking is a great preparation for your draft. Even if you don’t participate in mocks yourself, finding mocks to watch, like the ones on this site is excellent draft preparation. It gives you a feel for where players are valued by a variety of fantasy football owners. You should at least check out some mocks each month leading up to your draft. This monthly check will give you an idea of how players’ values are changing. Most of these changes are due to news from camps, injuries, trades. Now I think you should drop by and read the <acronym title="National Football League">NFL</acronym> News constantly, but then I am a news guy. Tries to read and absorb everything, his obsession is.

Like I was saying if you can’t check up on all the <acronym title="National Football League">NFL</acronym> happenings checking up on some mocks or Average Draft Positions can keep you up on the changing values of players as your draft comes closer. It is a great shortcut to doing obsessive research into everything going on with the <acronym title="National Football League">NFL</acronym>. A good example is Seattle <acronym title="Wide Receiver">WR</acronym> Nate Burleson who was a big time sleeper prospect going very late in Drafts and Mocks but his status has been changing if you have been watching the Mocks and ADP lists. Not so sleepy as last month, now is he.


Ok, back to the main point again. Each draft is alive, it contains an essence, an ebb and flow along lines making each draft unique unto itself. Mocking is great but no mock will be exactly like your draft. That is why you must feel the draft. You must learn to follow the flow of the draft but you must like a salmon know when to go against the current. As in my other article A Little Dynasty Tale I mentioned that you can’t just be an owner that perceives the glass as ½ empty. But you also can’t be the owner that perceives the glass as ½ full either. You must be able to perceive your draft from both/all angles. A Little Dynasty Tale was about how a little extra preparation yielded a nice coup in a “rookie” draft.

Preparation is a big key and we all go great lengths to prepare for our drafts. No matter how much or how little you do or how much all preparation is good. I could go on and on about preparation, maybe I should write more draft articles. On and on, on and on, sometimes does he.

For now, I will talk about one thing I do during the draft and how it helps me feel the draft. For the purposes of this article we will assume we are in a ten owner draft drafting in the middle.

I take a piece of paper and list the owners in draft order leaving plenty of space available. When each owner picks I put down the type of player he picked, <acronym title="quarterback">QB</acronym>, <acronym title="Running Back">RB</acronym>, <acronym title="Wide Receiver">WR</acronym> as he picks them. I only want to know what positions have been filled by each team and be able to calculate this up fast. Too much info would just be clutter. This can be a big help.

Let’s say you have already picked a top <acronym title="Wide Receiver">WR</acronym> earlier and was thinking about another <acronym title="Running Back">RB</acronym> at this point. Look at your list only 5 owners have a #1 <acronym title="Wide Receiver">WR</acronym> at this point no one has a #2 <acronym title="Wide Receiver">WR</acronym> to say the least. Now that you know this info what do you feel about the draft at this point? When you can feel the draft the draft is about opportunities that are presented to you that can be taken advantage of or lost. While your sense of order wants to grab a <acronym title="Running Back">RB</acronym> at this point it may be an opportunity lost., glass ½ full? so maybe a change of plans is in order. You have a top <acronym title="Wide Receiver">WR</acronym> already but you know that ½ the owners need a #1WR and will be looking to grab one very soon. Also if those owners all grab a Number #1 <acronym title="Wide Receiver">WR</acronym> the owners that having a good #1 <acronym title="Wide Receiver">WR</acronym> will be getting more nervous about getting a quality #2 <acronym title="Wide Receiver">WR</acronym>. So you know at this point WRs will start to fly off the board. It may be a great time to grab another <acronym title="Wide Receiver">WR</acronym>. You get two top WRs which is never a bad thing. Now the whole next round will likely be all WRs as you have started a <acronym title="Wide Receiver">WR</acronym> run. The bonus is that the RBs that you were looking at will almost all be waiting for you in the next round.

Let’s look a little later in this draft. 3 Qbs went early, let’s say Brady, Manning, Romo. Now just before you pick 4 QBs fly off the board. The natural instinct is to grab one quick. But check your list of positions filled, seven teams have starting QBs. That means only two other owners might, or might not, be drafting QBs in the next round. Look at your cheatsheet and if there are 3 Qbs left you like, your glass is ½ full, so to speak. Feel the freedom, a <acronym title="quarterback">QB</acronym> you like will be around next round. You are free to find a potential difference maker for your team this round. Of course, if you like one of the QBs left much better than the rest go with your gut. But, you are now starting to look at your draft and seeing the opportunities that come and go during the draft.

 

[Mental]

Let me speak from someone with a more laymen's knowledge of football. I dont watch alot of college football and really only study them when they are approaching the pro's. Alot of these guys here can throw you stats, college names etc.. I can't but I do study and study alot. I dont have an offseason for football. im passionate about football and its the only sport i really followed. I have always been a Dallas Cowboys fan but fantasy football gave me reason to be interested in all the teams and whos doing what. Study, study, study..... Get your information from multiple sources and generate a game plan stradegy that is flexible and stick with it. Generate your own ADP and have confidence in it. On draft day... dont get cute. Stick to the knowledge you accumulated and dont over think your choices on draft day. I draft solid contending teams every year and while I dont have strings of "superbowl" fantasy trophies. Ive won my share and am more often then not a contender...Hey I got raped in injuries last year!!! lol If your one of those guys borrowing magazines during the draft then you havent been studying!! Have fun!!