Close Call 2012 - #4: Tony Romo vs Eli Manning
- Thread starter Miller
- Start date
#1bears fan
New Member
Never a huge fan of Eli so Im going Romo.. Nicks nicked up again Cruz will be drawing the dbl. split up backfield. As long as Dez stops beating his mom that is..
Arctic Dawgs
Well-Known Member
Leave them both and take Cutler. but if I have to Romo
Eli for me and friends it ain't close in my mind. Eli is playing at near elite status, Romo- well we're still hoping to see a lot more from Romo. He teases us most years but always falls short. He's a good QB but hasn't approached the elite thought with me in a few years.
If Eli is playing at an elite level for FF (averaged 18.9 ppg in 11); then how is Romo not at that level when he averaged under 1 pt less than Eli (18.1 ppg in 2011)?
He finished as the #7 QB last year, Eli was #6.......How can one be elite and the other not? Neither are elite fantasy QB's IMO.......but both are very good #1 QB guys that should finish in the 5-10 range. If I had to pick, I go with Romo as I think there is a little more upside there.
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Maybe because one of them is a winner, and the other is a chump.
One can perform under pressure, the other chokes like mad!
Both can be 100% true and you all would still be 100% wrong when it come to fantasy football......
So how many pts do you get for winning a game????
So how many pts do you get for a clutch TD vs a meaningless TD in the 2nd QB????
So how many pts do you get for a playoff win????
If I was picking an NFL QB, I'm taking Eli every day of the week and twice on Sunday! But that is not what we are talking about here. In fantasy terms, these two are just so close in terms of numbers and abilities you can't possibly tell me one is elite and one is not. I can see preferring either one over the other; but in the end, they are both right in the same category IMO.
In fantasy, you have to strip the winning intangibles and look at what they are capable of from a statistical standpoint b/c in the end, for your fantasy team that is all that matters. A non-clutch TD scores the same as a game winner. And an INT in the 1st Q subtracts the same as an INT when you are driving for the winning score.
Another interesting note here, last year was the only time in the last 5 years that Eli averaged more pts per game than Romo.
That depends on your point of view. I will say I have not dug very deeply, but I do know you get more consistant numbers with Eli than you do Romo. Romo seems to have those 3-4 huge weeks that puts his total pts up. In every league I was in last year, Eli scored more than Romo, and was much more consistant than Romo was.
Now I don't say elite, and if I did I agree I was wrong. I do say in my mind Eli is the much safer and more productive starter than Romo, fantasy or otherwise.
I said "near elite" and still believe that.
Good points on all fronts, consistency is very important IMO and could sway this one way or the other......but since I never take anything at face value
......let's take a look to see if Eli really is the more consistent option:2012: 4 pt per passing TD league
Bad 0-10 pt - Eli 1; Romo 2*
OK 10.1 - 15 pt - Eli 3; Romo 2
Good 15.1 - 20 pt - Eli 5; Romo 4
Very GD 20.1 - 25 pt - Eli 4; Romo 6
Great 25 pt + - Eli 3; Romo 2
*Includes wk 16 injury when he only had 2 attempts
**Neither QB had a 30+ pt effort last year to inflate overall numbers
OK, so there are the raw numbers. Let's do some grouping here. Both Eli and Manning had 25% of their games in the bad or OK categories. A respectable number. Eli actually edged out Romo in the great game area that kinda disproved the argument that Romo pads his overall stats with 3-4 huge weeks. Where Romo's value lies is his 38% in the Very Good category. His 6 games there combined with his great games gives you 50% of his games played at 20 pts or higher, just edging out Eli's 7. Both had the same number of 15+ pt games at 12.
The real difference in their numbers last year kinda boils down to 1 week, Romo only had 2 attempts in week 16 (assuming injury here) and took a 0. With just an OK effort, his totals would have been identical with Eli.
Consistency to me also included 2 other areas. How long have you performed at this level and injury history, how consistent are you on the field.
Let's tackle the easy one first: Injury history - Clear edge to Eli. Elie is consistently on the field more than Romo. Over the last 5 years Romo has missed 13 games (16%) (plus the 0 he took last yr in wk 16). Eli has not missed a game. Clear edge to Eli.
Year to year consistency - How long have they done it at this level. To do this, let's look at their rank in pts per game over the last 5 years:
2007 - Eli 14th (13.2 pts) Romo 2nd (19.8 pts)
2008 - Eli 18th (13.2 pts) Romo 6th (17.4 pts)
2009 - Eli 14th (15.9 pts) Romo 7th (18.0 pts)
2010 - Eli 15th (16.4 pts) Romo 8th (17.7 pts)
2011 - Eli 6th (18.9 pts) Romo 7th (18.1 pts)
Here you have a clear advantage to Romo. Outside of his career year in 2007 he has 4 straight years where he has finished between 6th and 8th in ppg. Before last year, Eli had finished no higher than 14th in that same stat. Romo has performed more consistently over the past 5 years than Eli on a season to season basis.
So in terms of consistency, the facts just don't back up the claim here unless I am missing something hidden in the stats. Romo's FANTASY performances last year are just as consistent as Eli on a game to game basis. Romo is also the much more safer option in terms of year to year performance. He has performed at the level he was at last year for a MUCH longer time than Eli. Eli has had 1 very good year and a whole lot of OK years. Has he turned the corner? Maybe, but his track record is just 1 year at that production level. Where Eli does have a clear edge is reliability. He is always on the field. Romo has been more prone to injury over the last 5 seasons.
So reliability - edge to Eli. Romo has some injury risk.
Consistency when they play, Romo is the more proven, safer performer and just as consistent game to game even when comparing Eli's career year.
Again, have to ingnore the NFL QB value and concentrate on the Fantasy QB value when looking at these two. It's easy to overvalue Eli due to the value he has for his team. But unfortunatley you don't score any fantasy points for that.
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Outstanding post Miller. Go Romo! Just stay healthy