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Axe Elf
Ok, this will probly just confuse everyone, so there’s really no reason to look for any further justification to post it. These are my QB “Power-Value Rankings”--which take into consideration not only projections of performance, but also the relative value of each player given their projections and their ADP. So Aaron Rodgers, costing you a 2nd round pick but giving you several weeks of mediocre performance, is only the 12th-rated QB on my board. You would get much more value by selecting Russell Wilson with a 7th round pick, especially if he keeps up his pace as the highest-scoring QB in the league.
So, here we go (with ADP in parentheses)...
1. Tony Romo (8.02) - Spending an 8th round pick on the QB who finished 3rd in pass yardage, 6th in pass TDs, and 8th in overall fantasy QB scoring last season is the best deal I can find on the board. If he keeps up the pace he established with Dez Bryant at the end of 2012, Romo should give you top 5 QB production in 2013 --especially since he sports the easiest schedule against the pass of any QB in the league.
2. Russell Wilson (7.04) - Wilson’s second-half pace would have made him the top scoring fantasy QB in 2012. If he can keep it up over a whole season, you’ll have a steal in the 7th round.
3. Robert Griffin III (7.03) - RG3 was #5 in fantasy scoring among QBs in 2012--and he missed a couple of games. His knee appears to be healing on schedule for him to return in Week 1. If your league scores 6 pt pass TDs or 1 pt per 20 pass yards (or both), it will devalue rushing QBs like Wilson and RG3, but if not, you’ll be sitting pretty with this 7th round pick as well.
4. Matt Ryan (5.08) - Ryan is sitting right at the intersection between production and value. As another potential top 5 performer, with a QB-friendly schedule for the second year in a row, his ADP in the mid-5th round seems about right.
5. Carson Palmer (13.05) - 10th in pass yardage for the awful Raiders last year, Palmer’s entry into Bruce Arians’ aggressive downfield passing scheme should make good use of Larry Fitzgerald and bring Palmer to the cusp of a top 10 finish in overall fantasy QB scoring. Ideally you can get that kind of value for your backup QB in the 13th round, but if you roll the dice on Palmer while assembling a strong team around him, the odds are in your favor.
6. Peyton Manning (3.10) - Of course he will probly finish higher than this in overall QB fantasy scoring, especially since Denver has the 2nd-easiest schedule vs the pass, but having to pay a third round pick for him tempers my enthusiasm somewhat.
7. Matthew Stafford (6.05) - I would expect Stafford to gain a few pass TDs this season, and his yardage totals were already stellar. Like Ryan, his ADP isn’t far removed from his value--but DET does have a difficult schedule this season.
8. Colin Kaepernick (6.10) - I will re-emphasize the caveat I made earlier about QBs who score with their legs being de-valued in some scoring systems, but Kaepernick’s rushing abilities make him a valuable asset in traditional-scoring leagues. I don’t think he’s as good of a value as many of the other QBs being drafted in this general vicinity, though.
9. Drew Brees (3.01) - I think Brees is due for an off year. First of all, the Saints face the third-hardest schedule for QBs in the league. Secondly, Payton has said he wants to re-establish the running game and get back to the rushing totals that the Saints were able to post as a team in the year they won the Super Bowl. Brees’ yardage production that year was his lowest as a Saint to date. Forking over an early third round pick is more likely to disappoint than delight.
10. Cam Newton (4.11) - So much of Newton’s value had been a result of his rushing stats. Now, new OC Mike Shula wants to keep Newton in the pocket and do away with the zone read packages that had allowed him to amass his rushing yardage and scores. Newton is going way too soon, given the expected dropoff in fantasy scoring. On the plus side is Carolina’s 3rd-best schedule for QBs.
11. Andrew Luck (7.07) - Even though the Colts won’t be throwing downfield as much this season, the offense is still going to run through Luck. I don’t expect as much from him as from some other 7th-8th round choices, but he still represents a decent value here.
12. Aaron Rodgers (2.08) - There’s just no reason to spend a second round pick on a QB, especially one that scores under 16 points for 7 weeks of the fantasy season.
13. Josh Freeman (13.10) - Somewhat unbeknownst to the fantasy world, Josh Freeman threw for over 4000 yards in 2012--good for 9th place overall. He was also 8th in passing TDs, and 13th in overall fantasy QB scoring. I don’t see any reason for him to make a major jump forward from that neighborhood this season, but I don’t see any reason for him to regress much in his second year with Vincent Jackson and Doug Williams, either. Freeman should make a solid QB2 for any fantasy team.
14. Tom Brady (5.04) - With his top 5 targets out of the picture (although Gronkowski could be back for part of the season), and a schedule in the bottom 10 for QBs, I can’t see Brady being one of the elite this season--yet you’ll have to pay an elite price to have him on your roster. Best to just avoid the whole situation.
15. Andy Dalton (10.12) - Dalton landed 7th in passing TDs last season, but only 16th in passing yardage--still good enough for 12th in overall fantasy QB scoring, just ahead of Josh Freeman. You’ll have to jump for Dalton a couple of rounds earlier, however, and his schedule Is more difficult this season.
16. Matt Schaub (13.12) - Schaub was another 4000 yard passer in 2012 (11th overall), but only 15th in passing TDs. As long as Foster and Tate are carrying in every ball inside the 5, I can’t recommend Schaub much higher than this--especially given his unfavorable schedule--but at least you can get him pretty late in the draft.
17. Phillip Rivers (12.06) - Rivers has a chance to increase his 2013 output over last season, with healthier and more robust WRs and a QB-friendly schedule, but I still can’t see him being much higher than 15th overall (21st last year). Having to reach for him before guys like Freeman and Schaub make him a lesser value.
18. Ben Roethlisberger (11.03) - Big Ben clocked in at #18 in fantasy QB scoring last season--and that was with Mike Wallace. I see no reason for him to outscore himself this year, and therefore no reason to reach for him in the 11th round with better prospects available later.
19. Eli Manning (9.05) - He was 15th in overall QB scoring last season. Maybe a healthy Nicks can bump him up a couple of spots, but I don’t see much value in taking a QB2 in the first 10 rounds.
20. Sam Bradford (13.07) - I dunno, I guess I’m still not sold on the trendy idea that the Rams’ offense is BETTER this season than it has been since Bradford became their QB. They lost Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola, and they gained a three headed RBBC, a TE that has so far been around #20 at his position, and a couple of rookies from the same college. On top of all that, STL has the 4th-hardest schedule for QBs in the league. I guess the ADP kind of matches the potential here, but that’s not saying much.
21. Brandon Weeden (no ADP) - I do think that the Norv Turner offense can make Weeden a bit of a sleeper this season. Even though the Browns’ schedule is not favorable to QBs, he was #26 last year, so he can’t do much WORSE. The development of Trent Richardson and Josh Gordon, along with TE sleeper Jordan Cameron, mean that he should have the opportunity for more than 14 TDs this season.
22. Alex Smith (14.04) - Steady but unspectacular is what I expect from Alex Smith this season. If that’s what you need as a bye week plug behind your stud QB1, then a late pick of Smith could be all you need. KC does face the 4th-most QB-friendly schedule this season.
23. Joe Flacco (12.05) - Probly about the same as Alex Smith--but a much harder schedule for a QB (6th-worst)--and two rounds sooner. If your stud’s bye week falls on a Ravens’ home game, it could be worth the stretch, as Flacco always seems to do better at home.
24. Ryan Tannehill (14.03) - Tannehill will need to greatly improve both his yardage and TDs this season to be fantasy relevant, but the addition of Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller, along with the experience of his second season, should help in both areas.
25. Jay Cutler (11.10) - I’m not really sure why Cutler is going this high--he finished just ahead of Tannehill last season, and just below Christian Ponder (although he did miss a game and a half with injury). Still, I’d probly rather take a chance on Tannehill three rounds later.
So, here we go (with ADP in parentheses)...
1. Tony Romo (8.02) - Spending an 8th round pick on the QB who finished 3rd in pass yardage, 6th in pass TDs, and 8th in overall fantasy QB scoring last season is the best deal I can find on the board. If he keeps up the pace he established with Dez Bryant at the end of 2012, Romo should give you top 5 QB production in 2013 --especially since he sports the easiest schedule against the pass of any QB in the league.
2. Russell Wilson (7.04) - Wilson’s second-half pace would have made him the top scoring fantasy QB in 2012. If he can keep it up over a whole season, you’ll have a steal in the 7th round.
3. Robert Griffin III (7.03) - RG3 was #5 in fantasy scoring among QBs in 2012--and he missed a couple of games. His knee appears to be healing on schedule for him to return in Week 1. If your league scores 6 pt pass TDs or 1 pt per 20 pass yards (or both), it will devalue rushing QBs like Wilson and RG3, but if not, you’ll be sitting pretty with this 7th round pick as well.
4. Matt Ryan (5.08) - Ryan is sitting right at the intersection between production and value. As another potential top 5 performer, with a QB-friendly schedule for the second year in a row, his ADP in the mid-5th round seems about right.
5. Carson Palmer (13.05) - 10th in pass yardage for the awful Raiders last year, Palmer’s entry into Bruce Arians’ aggressive downfield passing scheme should make good use of Larry Fitzgerald and bring Palmer to the cusp of a top 10 finish in overall fantasy QB scoring. Ideally you can get that kind of value for your backup QB in the 13th round, but if you roll the dice on Palmer while assembling a strong team around him, the odds are in your favor.
6. Peyton Manning (3.10) - Of course he will probly finish higher than this in overall QB fantasy scoring, especially since Denver has the 2nd-easiest schedule vs the pass, but having to pay a third round pick for him tempers my enthusiasm somewhat.
7. Matthew Stafford (6.05) - I would expect Stafford to gain a few pass TDs this season, and his yardage totals were already stellar. Like Ryan, his ADP isn’t far removed from his value--but DET does have a difficult schedule this season.
8. Colin Kaepernick (6.10) - I will re-emphasize the caveat I made earlier about QBs who score with their legs being de-valued in some scoring systems, but Kaepernick’s rushing abilities make him a valuable asset in traditional-scoring leagues. I don’t think he’s as good of a value as many of the other QBs being drafted in this general vicinity, though.
9. Drew Brees (3.01) - I think Brees is due for an off year. First of all, the Saints face the third-hardest schedule for QBs in the league. Secondly, Payton has said he wants to re-establish the running game and get back to the rushing totals that the Saints were able to post as a team in the year they won the Super Bowl. Brees’ yardage production that year was his lowest as a Saint to date. Forking over an early third round pick is more likely to disappoint than delight.
10. Cam Newton (4.11) - So much of Newton’s value had been a result of his rushing stats. Now, new OC Mike Shula wants to keep Newton in the pocket and do away with the zone read packages that had allowed him to amass his rushing yardage and scores. Newton is going way too soon, given the expected dropoff in fantasy scoring. On the plus side is Carolina’s 3rd-best schedule for QBs.
11. Andrew Luck (7.07) - Even though the Colts won’t be throwing downfield as much this season, the offense is still going to run through Luck. I don’t expect as much from him as from some other 7th-8th round choices, but he still represents a decent value here.
12. Aaron Rodgers (2.08) - There’s just no reason to spend a second round pick on a QB, especially one that scores under 16 points for 7 weeks of the fantasy season.
13. Josh Freeman (13.10) - Somewhat unbeknownst to the fantasy world, Josh Freeman threw for over 4000 yards in 2012--good for 9th place overall. He was also 8th in passing TDs, and 13th in overall fantasy QB scoring. I don’t see any reason for him to make a major jump forward from that neighborhood this season, but I don’t see any reason for him to regress much in his second year with Vincent Jackson and Doug Williams, either. Freeman should make a solid QB2 for any fantasy team.
14. Tom Brady (5.04) - With his top 5 targets out of the picture (although Gronkowski could be back for part of the season), and a schedule in the bottom 10 for QBs, I can’t see Brady being one of the elite this season--yet you’ll have to pay an elite price to have him on your roster. Best to just avoid the whole situation.
15. Andy Dalton (10.12) - Dalton landed 7th in passing TDs last season, but only 16th in passing yardage--still good enough for 12th in overall fantasy QB scoring, just ahead of Josh Freeman. You’ll have to jump for Dalton a couple of rounds earlier, however, and his schedule Is more difficult this season.
16. Matt Schaub (13.12) - Schaub was another 4000 yard passer in 2012 (11th overall), but only 15th in passing TDs. As long as Foster and Tate are carrying in every ball inside the 5, I can’t recommend Schaub much higher than this--especially given his unfavorable schedule--but at least you can get him pretty late in the draft.
17. Phillip Rivers (12.06) - Rivers has a chance to increase his 2013 output over last season, with healthier and more robust WRs and a QB-friendly schedule, but I still can’t see him being much higher than 15th overall (21st last year). Having to reach for him before guys like Freeman and Schaub make him a lesser value.
18. Ben Roethlisberger (11.03) - Big Ben clocked in at #18 in fantasy QB scoring last season--and that was with Mike Wallace. I see no reason for him to outscore himself this year, and therefore no reason to reach for him in the 11th round with better prospects available later.
19. Eli Manning (9.05) - He was 15th in overall QB scoring last season. Maybe a healthy Nicks can bump him up a couple of spots, but I don’t see much value in taking a QB2 in the first 10 rounds.
20. Sam Bradford (13.07) - I dunno, I guess I’m still not sold on the trendy idea that the Rams’ offense is BETTER this season than it has been since Bradford became their QB. They lost Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola, and they gained a three headed RBBC, a TE that has so far been around #20 at his position, and a couple of rookies from the same college. On top of all that, STL has the 4th-hardest schedule for QBs in the league. I guess the ADP kind of matches the potential here, but that’s not saying much.
21. Brandon Weeden (no ADP) - I do think that the Norv Turner offense can make Weeden a bit of a sleeper this season. Even though the Browns’ schedule is not favorable to QBs, he was #26 last year, so he can’t do much WORSE. The development of Trent Richardson and Josh Gordon, along with TE sleeper Jordan Cameron, mean that he should have the opportunity for more than 14 TDs this season.
22. Alex Smith (14.04) - Steady but unspectacular is what I expect from Alex Smith this season. If that’s what you need as a bye week plug behind your stud QB1, then a late pick of Smith could be all you need. KC does face the 4th-most QB-friendly schedule this season.
23. Joe Flacco (12.05) - Probly about the same as Alex Smith--but a much harder schedule for a QB (6th-worst)--and two rounds sooner. If your stud’s bye week falls on a Ravens’ home game, it could be worth the stretch, as Flacco always seems to do better at home.
24. Ryan Tannehill (14.03) - Tannehill will need to greatly improve both his yardage and TDs this season to be fantasy relevant, but the addition of Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller, along with the experience of his second season, should help in both areas.
25. Jay Cutler (11.10) - I’m not really sure why Cutler is going this high--he finished just ahead of Tannehill last season, and just below Christian Ponder (although he did miss a game and a half with injury). Still, I’d probly rather take a chance on Tannehill three rounds later.