Here's where I see it:
Patriots - Always seem to be regular season juggernauts! Don't see it really changing. 13-3 and home field advantage.
Jets - just don't seem to be clicking....won't tank, but not more than mediocre. 8-8
Bills - Rising, but QB situation will hold them back from taking the next step. 8-8
Dolphins - MESS! New coach won't save them in 1 year. 4-12
I think this division will be a one horse race. If the Pats do stumble a little, I would say it's the Bills not the Jets that could surprise and make a run them.