Adrian Peterson - is he just the safest pick?

[Miller]

While not a slam dunk, in nearly all non-ppr leagues and even most ppr leagues Peterson seems to be the #1 pick of choice. Now no one doubt his talent, he's a super stud.....but the best player available? He's yet to finish as the best back in the league and his best TD number is 13. His yardage is amazing, but he does not add much in the air so it all has to be on the ground. Yet still he goes #1....

Why? Is it just that he is the safest pick? While I doubt he finishes as the #1 back, I'd say he's a good pick to finish top 3-4. Probably better than anyone else. Is this the draw? I don't see a guy who plays on an offense that will score enough to get him 20 TD's (even with Favre). Is it just that we don't have another option we can make a good enough argument for? Forte has the one year wonder and 3.9 ypc questions....MJD has the first time in a full time role question...Turner has the workload question.....so is that it? Is AP just simply the safest pick?

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I remember a lot of people didn't think he was very safe last year. There were alot of questions surrounding his durability. Looked pretty durable last year though. I haven't heard a single durability question since.

 

[Mike]

I still fear him and would trade to avoid him. I just see him as the guy that will likely put up big numbers, but the risk is also too high that he will suffer a nasty injury.

With Favre, I feel much more comfortable about drafting him because that move along reduces his big impact hits in a big way.

 

[Cooley Cadets]

Not so much because I fear him but if I had the #1 pick I would definitely be interested in the offers to move back and pick up another early pick...

The last time I was in that position Terrell Davis was the stud. I was able to trade back a few spots and picked up a 2nd. Traded that 1st to like the 12th and picked up another early pick. Was able to work that scenario every couple rounds and ended up dominating during the regular season. The sad part was that my stud players were on part-time duty getting ready for the playoffs come fantasy playoff time and my team was upset in the championship. The sadder part is that the other owners never let me do that again.

 

[Birdman]

I think you hit the nail on the head - he's the safest pick, but probably not the best.

Guys like Turner and Williams even have more upside, imo. But to draft them ahead of Apete takes serious gonads.

 

[Miller]

I think you hit the nail on the head - he's the safest pick, but probably not the best.

Guys like Turner and Williams even have more upside, imo. But to draft them ahead of Apete takes serious gonads.

I'll toss LT in that mix as well....the upside of LT's re-emergence is higher than AP.....but seems like a much bigger risk than AP at the moment.

 

[Mike]

The trading down is the tough part. It used to be easy to trade out of the #1-#3 spots and get some great value.

Those picks were almost always running backs though,and the value of a running back is just not what it used to be for a savvy fantasy owner. A good fantasy owner already sees the risk of taking that running back high, and knows that the risk greatly increases if they are trading up to get him. You can still make solid trades in dynasty leagues, but it's not as easy in redraft.

 

[Miller]

I have a feeling there is going to be little interest in trading up this year.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

In a standard scoring league, I don't think I would want to trade out of the #1 spot.

AP is a beast, Favre is coming to town, and their schedule is S O F T!!

 

[WesDawg]

I'd trade down to 1.08 and grab Forte. :sunshine:

 

[efactor]

He's yet to finish as the best back in the league and his best TD number is 13.

Well, he's only been in the league two years, so to point to a career best of 13 TDs as something to be concerned about is reaching IMO. He has had incredible yardage numbers and a high YPC despite running against 8 and 9 man fronts. Plus, he's a threat to take it to the house at any time. The TDs will increase with a more balanced offense which I think they will have this year, weather they sign Favre or not.

The guy is such an incredible talent that I just can't justify picking anyone in front of him, even in PPR. Floor of 1600 and 10-12 TDs. Ceiling is unlimited. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2000 yards rushing and 15-18 TDs this year. Very safe pick. You can trade out, but you better get a sweet deal or you'll be kicking yourself the entire year..........

 

[Phicinfan]

I'd trade down to 1.08 and grab Forte. :sunshine:

if you trade to 1.08, you won't usually get Forte. I have seen him top 5 in most mocks. But you could get DeWill or some others....

 

[efactor]

if you trade to 1.08, you won't usually get Forte. I have seen him top 5 in most mocks. But you could get DeWill or some others....

I'm pretty sure Wes was being sarcastic based on previous posts were some (me among them) were saying that Forte shouldn't go in the top 8.............

 

[WesDawg]

I'm pretty sure Wes was being sarcastic based on previous posts were some (me among them) were saying that Forte shouldn't go in the top 8.............

Indeed. LOL