Aaron Rodgers? 1st or 2nd Round?

[johst16]

Im picking 10th in in the first round of my draft. Im thinking about picking up Rodgers in the Second Round, as I will be picking 3rd in the second round. Do you think that is too early to pick him up? I think he is going to be a stud this year.



Passing TD =6 pts
Every 50 Yds =2 pts

Recieving/Rushing TD=6 pts
Recieving/Ruching every 25 yds=2 pts

 

[Deacon]

Yes that is way too early. In all the mocks and real drafts that I have participated in I have not seen Rodgers go any earlier than the 4th.

Don't sacrifice a #1 WR or RB by reaching for someone you can get in the 3rd or later.

 

[cctekguy]

Depends on your draft...

If you pass over Brees, Brady or Manning to get Rogers then yes....It's too soon.

When Manning is off the board it's time to draft Rogers.

 

[derringer007]

I think so, if this is a PPR league you should be picking the best WRs in the first 2-3 rounds and then think QB 3-4 rounds.

PPR: WR-WR-RB-QB

Non-PPR: RB-RB-WR-QB.

 

[JackG1980]

I looked at your scoring sysytem and I would say the 2nd round will not be too early. Your Qb TDs get 6 points which makes them just about equals to RB and WR. Think about it. Rodgers could easily get 300 yards 2TDs per game. Thats equal to 150 yards 2 TDs for WR and RB. Ask yourself which one is more likely to happen. A RB or WR getting 150 yards 2TD or Rodgers getting 300 yards and 2 TDs.

 

[Mike]

I think taking any QB that early is simply shooting yourself in the foot. I prefer to go to the 2nd tier of QB's and use those early draft picks for running backs and receivers.

 

[1 Crazy Commish]

In otherwords disregard the yardage altogether. A good Rusher or Rxer will get just as many yards on a good days passing. 250=125 etc. Go for the TD's. Passing is just as good on your league as crossing the line on foot.

 

[klahrace]

I think taking any QB that early is simply shooting yourself in the foot. I prefer to go to the 2nd tier of QB's and use those early draft picks for running backs and receivers.

I agree with Mike - I never pick a QB early. Don't think there's a big enough disparity from the top QBs to the second tier ones(Ryan, Shaub, Cassel, Cutler, Palmer, Favre etc.) you can get in rounds 5-8. You can get 3 or 4 quality RB/WR/TE before pulling the trigger on a QB.

 

[Miller]

in the no QB early camp. It's all about relative value. The question is not will he out score the RB/WR you take in the 2nd, it is will he outscore the other QB's taken later more then that potential WR or RB will outscore their position taken later....

Rogers is a 4th round player, taking any 4th round player in the 2nd is not a wise move. I agree with the early suggestion to wait for the top 3 to go, when they do, then get ready to snag Rodgers. I have a feeling it will be 4th round for you, maybe reach in the 3rd if you REALLY want him.

 

[cctekguy]

I started to post the same explaination earlier, Miller, but it got so damn confusing I bailed on it.

You did a good job making it short and simple.

 

[JackG1980]

Miller is correct.... but you are in a quarterback heavy league. I would wait and see when Brees, Brady and Manning are taken before I pick up rodgers. If its not a PPR league then the quarterback is going to score the most points therefore is the most important position.

 

[Miller]

Miller is correct.... but you are in a quarterback heavy league. I would wait and see when Brees, Brady and Manning are taken before I pick up rodgers. If its not a PPR league then the quarterback is going to score the most points therefore is the most important position.

I disagree with the assumption that just b/c the QB's score the most pts, they are the most important.....

My local league is a 10 team league with 6pts per TD, only last year did we go to any ppr (.5 per) and while the QB's score a ton of pts....all the QB's score more pts. So last year Brees scored 363 pts, the #7 QB (an average starter) scored 278, a difference of 5 per week. For this situation you are looking at the #4 QB, who last year scored 315 pts and difference of 2.2 pts per wk over an average starter who you could get several rounds later.

Compare that to the WR position where you are looking at 30 starters. In the 2nd round let's say you can take the #3 WR at 235 pts, compare that to an average starter (16th in the league) at 179 pts. That is a difference of 56 pts or 3.3 pts per game.

So despite the more higher points scored by the QB, there is more of a drop off in pts per game in the WR example as compared to the QB example. Only if you feel you are getting the top QBor maybe top 2 QB does it start to make sense.

 

[cctekguy]

THAT was the post I was trying to make but I got so consumed with the math I lost my train of thought and said F IT and drank another beer.

Looks like maybe you got a little rattled too Miller :biglaugh:

So despite the more higher points scored by the QB...

Great post though...Thanks for pinch hitting for my brain.

 

[stagee2000]

My league has almost the same scoring as yours, and I also had the #10 pick. Brees, Manning and Brady all went in the first round and I got Rodgers in the second round.

 

[Miller]

THAT was the post I was trying to make but I got so consumed with the math I lost my train of thought and said F IT and drank another beer.

lol, yeah I love crunching the numbers of VBD (value based drafting)....I don't go solely on it, but understand it and love the math of it.

Looks like maybe you got a little rattled too Miller :biglaugh:

Not sure what ya mean on that.....if you think I was upset, not in the least. As I said, these are the discussions that keep me addicted to this hobby.

Great post though...Thanks for pinch hitting for my brain.

Thanks and anytime

 

[Coachnorm]

In both Sports Outlaw Fantasy Football drafts (SOFFL and SOFFLII) Aaron Rodgers went in the third round.

 

[johst16]

Brees was the first QB taken. Since the the qb's were still left Manning and Brady after my second pick, 15th overall I decided to hold out in picking Rodgers, figured I could get him in round three. There was then a run on qbs and Rodgers was taken in the second round.

 

[Miller]

yuck, I who did you take instead?

 

[johst16]

I took A. Johnson for my second pick. Below is my roster in no particular order.


Player
McNabb, Donovan QB PHI
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
Smith, Kevin RB DET
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
Smith, Steve WR CAR
Cooley, Chris TE WAS
Crosby, Mason K GB
Bears DST

Cutler, Jay QB CHI
Edwards, Trent QB BUF
Bradshaw, Ahmad RB NYG
Johnson, Larry RB KC
Curtis, Kevin WR PHI
Hester, Devin WR CHI
Shiancoe, Visanthe TE MIN
Carney, John K NO
Bills DST

 

[cctekguy]

!