A Fun (But Frustrating) Exercise

[cctekguy]

In the continuing debate regarding how much of Fantasy Football is luck, consider trying this little exercise.

I finished the regular season at 2-12 in the PFL (you can stop laughing now). I went back week by week and generated the "perfect" schedule for my team, sticking EXACTLY to the actual schedule format. If I played a team from the East I would only replace them from the East and I played every team once or twice (within my division).

Here is how my season COULD have gone using the actual scores for that week:

1) I scored 129. CP scored 159. I could have played Posse 78

2) I scored 122. Rockstar scored 129. I could have played CP 91

3) I scored 100. Posse scored 109. Lost to Rockstar anyway 112

4) I scored 79. Hydros scored 175. Lost to Deer anyway 135

5) I scored 115. Boys Scored 132. I could have played Phins 87

6) I scored 123. Deer scored 136. I could have played Hydros 121

7) I scored 104. Phins scored 153. I could have played Boys 91

8) I scored 107. Gryphons scored 102. No change here.

9) I scored 92. Slayers scored 141. No change here.

10) I scored 101. Gunz Scored 106. No change here.

11) I scored 139. Raiders scored 121. No Change here.

12) I scored 72. CP scored 181. I could have played Posse 55

13)I scored 112. Rockstar scored 191. I could have played CP 90

14) I scored 86. Posse scored 120. Lost to Rockstar anyway 116.


By only rewriting the schedule sticking EXACTLY to our schedule format, my 2-12 team would have ended at 9-5.

I would have made the play-offs as the wild card and lost in the 1st round, and then lost the game for 3rd place so no great loss. I'm probably better off with my 1st overall pick for next year instead of the $75 4th place money.

 

[JScott]

So I assume the "Fun" part is for us and the "Frustrating" part is for you in reading this?


Seriously though, you're correct in how much is luck, not just on the field (player injuries, weekly game plans) but off it as well (schedule).

 

[cctekguy]

Well...it's not ALL luck, though.

I would have a hard time generating a schedule that resulted in you missing the play-offs.

 

[jjtweeks]

Yea in PFL I relied on Peyton and AP all season with Jeffrey being a nice suprise. Was tough only having one real quality RB all season but one of the easiest schedules in the league. Happy finishing 4th for my first year in the league. Could have been a whole lot different like tek said if the schedule was any different

 

[2minutedrill]

Yeah, if your done with the horseshoe, I'd like to use it next year.

 

[jjtweeks]

i won't need it next year

 

[discoverecology]

Frustrating!>? It's more than frustrating. It's absolutely exasperating! I could lose my cool trying to gain victory at fantasy.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I'm a big believer in the schedule being one of the most important parts of fantasy football. The fact that you can gain 7 extra wins just by landing in someone else's slot says a lot to me

 

[discoverecology]

gain 7 extra wins just by landing in someone else's slot

I don't understand. Please elaborate. Thank$.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I don't understand. Please elaborate. Thank$.

I was talking about Tekies change from 2-12 to 9-5 by doing nothing other than swapping scheduled with someone else. That's 7 extra wins

 

[discoverecology]

lol. that's beautiful.

 

[cctekguy]

Whoa, Whoa, Whoa...


I did NOT swap schedules with another team.

I "Hand Picked" my schedule within the guidelines of the league, ie, 3 inter-division, 8 vs the other 2 divisions (alternating) and 3 more inter-division.

It was a "possible" schedule but not that of another team.

I'm sorry if I wasn't clear.

 

[Miller]

Schedule.....luck.......injuries.......it all hs is place in this madening game of FF.

In my local league I was 6-8.....yet the #2 team in total points.

I won Shula as the #2 seed, finished tied for the best record with Bodey...he got the #1 seed as a result of beating me head to head. That was the only week over the final 1/2 of the year that he outscored me. If he plays me ANY other week the 2nd half, I win, get the #1 seed and it would hve been me that would have ben beat by the 8 seed, and he would have won the league.......luck comes out on both sides thankfully.